option and probability

dulu pernah dengar ceramah motivasi peperiksaan. err, motivasi kecemerlangan? tak ingat pulak orang panggil apa. kem motivasi kot.....

katanya, bila nak jawab soalan objektif, mula dengan menggariskan kata kunci. kemudian buang/eliminate pilihan jawapan yang dah trang tang tang salah.
Rational:

• the probability of one out of two answer options being correct is 50% or 1/2.
• the probability of one out of four answer options being correct is 25% or 1/4.

nampak tak macam mana rasional di sebalik pengurangan pilihan tu. supaya kebarangkalian untuk dapat jawapan yang tepat itu lagi tinggi.

ok....

but what if to choose between LIFE or DEATH? you really have to choose between those two and you really don't know what to choose because you have no clue of which option will leads to life and which one will cause death.

maybe it is easier if you are to choose from a range of options and the answer would be probably on the scale of 1 to 10. no clear demarcation of what is good and what is bad. maybe you will end up at 8 which is not half bad. maybe 5 to be just average. but the point is, in this situation it will be less of mental stress and emotional unstability because it is not A or B. not correct or wrong. not win or lose. not living or being the dead. maybe the probability fact won't hit you that hard. 

say P(x)=50% and you by chance choose the wrong answer. maybe you would say, "i wish i choose the other one so that i will get the marks." then, you will be depressed and blame yoursellf and fate. kata dah bertawakal sepenuhnya pada Allah, ni apa kes pulak cenggini?

and when P(x)=25%, the stress wouldn't be too much. if you choose the wrong answer, you would say i might choose between another 2 wrong answers, so there's no much different and if you happened to select the correct option, you say you being so lucky! eh, mana perginya konsep rezeki (kejayaan/ kekayaan/ kemenangan etc) daripada Allah?

tentang pilihan. suratan atau kebetulan? kebarangkalian?

ISLAM.

I am very very glad that this is the only option.

so that there will be no doubt to embrace the truth.

no probabilty to be associated with. just have to deal with the constant fluctuation of iman.

nota kaki:

• tetiba teringat pasal probability ni sebab asyik dok tembak je jawapan MCQ. ooo la di daaa~
• pilihan raya pun boleh kira jugak ke guna sistem kebarangkalian ni? o.O